Automated Electronic Health Record Score to Predict Mortality Risk at the US Department of Veterans Affairs.

BACKGROUND: Terminally ill patients benefit from earlier engagement in palliative care. However, this does not always occur. This project assessed if an already available risk score, the Care Assessment Needs (CAN) score, would be able to identify patients at greatest risk for mortality within 30 days of hospital admission within the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). METHODS: The cohort of this retrospective analysis included all VA acute are patients over 18 years of age with a recent CAN score. The CAN score is an automatically calculated VA risk score that was repurposed to determine if it could predict risk of mortality after acute care admission. Univariate logistic regression was performed to obtain the probability of mortality within 30 days of admission, based on their CAN score. RESULTS: 298,467 patient records were assessed from January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2019. There was 6% mortality after 30 days of admissions, and 17% mortality within 1-year post-admission. Mean CAN score was 65 (SD: 29). On average, each incremental increase in the CAN score increased the probability of mortality by 7%. Patients with a CAN score of 90 had a 10% probability of 30-day post-admission mortality. CONCLUSION: A readily available risk score, automatically calculated from EHR data, was able to identify patients at high risk for 30-day mortality in the acute care setting. Next steps will be to assess how the CAN score can be utilized to in improve end of life care for high-risk hospitalized Veterans.

Risk of Potentially Preventable Hospitalizations After SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

Importance: Research demonstrates that SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with increased risk of all-cause hospitalization. However, no prior studies have assessed the association between SARS-CoV-2 and potentially preventable hospitalizations-that is, hospitalizations for conditions that can usually be effectively managed in ambulatory care settings. Objective: To examine whether SARS-CoV-2 is associated with potentially preventable hospitalization in a nationwide cohort of US veterans. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used an emulated target randomized trial design with monthly sequential trials to compare risk of a potentially preventable hospitalization among veterans with SARS-CoV-2 and matched comparators without SARS-CoV-2. A total of 189 136 US veterans enrolled in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) who were diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 between March 1, 2020, and April 30, 2021, and 943 084 matched comparators were included in the analysis. Data were analyzed from May 10, 2023, to January 26, 2024. Exposure: SARS-CoV-2 infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was a first potentially preventable hospitalization in VHA facilities, VHA-purchased community care, or Medicare fee-for-service care. Extended Cox models were used to examine adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) of potentially preventable hospitalization among veterans with SARS-CoV-2 and comparators during follow-up periods of 0 to 30, 0 to 90, 0 to 180, and 0 to 365 days. The start of follow-up was defined as the date of each veteran's first positive SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis, with the same index date applied to their matched comparators. Results: The 1 132 220 participants were predominantly men (89.06%), with a mean (SD) age of 60.3 (16.4) years. Most veterans were of Black (23.44%) or White (69.37%) race. Veterans with SARS-CoV-2 and comparators were well-balanced (standardized mean differences, all <0.100) on observable baseline clinical and sociodemographic characteristics. Overall, 3.10% of veterans (3.81% of those with SARS-CoV-2 and 2.96% of comparators) had a potentially preventable hospitalization during 1-year follow-up. Risk of a potentially preventable hospitalization was greater among veterans with SARS-CoV-2 than comparators in 4 follow-up periods: 0- to 30-day AHR of 3.26 (95% CI, 3.06-3.46); 0- to 90-day AHR of 2.12 (95% CI, 2.03-2.21); 0- to 180-day AHR of 1.69 (95% CI, 1.63-1.75); and 0- to 365-day AHR of 1.44 (95% CI, 1.40-1.48). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, an increased risk of preventable hospitalization in veterans with SARS-CoV-2, which persisted for at least 1 year after initial infection, highlights the need for research on ways in which SARS-CoV-2 shapes postinfection care needs and engagement with the health system. Solutions are needed to mitigate preventable hospitalization after SARS-CoV-2.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Infection on Long-Term Depression Symptoms among Veterans.

BACKGROUND: Prior research demonstrates that SARS-COV-2 infection can be associated with a broad range of mental health outcomes including depression symptoms. Veterans, in particular, may be at elevated risk of increased depression following SARS-COV-2 infection given their high rates of pre-existing mental and physical health comorbidities. However, few studies have tried to isolate SARS-COV-2 infection associations with long term, patient-reported depression symptoms from other factors (e.g., physical health comorbidities, pandemic-related stress). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between SARS-COV-2 infection and subsequent depression symptoms among United States Military Veterans. DESIGN: Survey-based non-randomized cohort study with matched comparators. PARTICIPANTS: A matched-dyadic sample from a larger, stratified random sample of participants with and without known to SARS-COV-2 infection were invited to participate in a survey evaluating mental health and wellness 18-months after their index infection date. Sampled participants were stratified by infection severity of the participant infected with SARS-COV-2 (hospitalized or not) and by month of index date. A total of 186 participants in each group agreed to participate in the survey and had sufficient data for inclusion in analyses. Those in the uninfected group who were later infected were excluded from analyses. MAIN MEASURES: Participants were administered the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 as part of a phone interview survey. Demographics, physical and mental health comorbidities were extracted from VHA administrative data. KEY RESULTS: Veterans infected with SARS-COV-2 had significantly higher depression symptoms scores compared with those uninfected. In particular, psychological symptoms (e.g., low mood, suicidal ideation) scores were elevated relative to the comparator group (MInfected = 3.16, 95%CI: 2.5, 3.8; MUninfected = 1.96, 95%CI: 1.4, 2.5). Findings were similar regardless of history of depression. CONCLUSION: SARS-COV-2 infection was associated with more depression symptoms among Veterans at 18-months post-infection. Routine evaluation of depression symptoms over time following SARS-COV-2 infection is important to facilitate adequate assessment and treatment.

Risk of Suicide-Related Outcomes After SARS-COV-2 Infection: Results from a Nationwide Observational Matched Cohort of US Veterans.

BACKGROUND: Negative mental health-related effects of SARS-COV-2 infection are increasingly evident. However, the impact on suicide-related outcomes is poorly understood, especially among populations at elevated risk. OBJECTIVE: To determine risk of suicide attempts and other self-directed violence (SDV) after SARS-COV-2 infection in a high-risk population. DESIGN: We employed an observational design supported by comprehensive electronic health records from the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) to examine the association of SARS-COV-2 infection with suicide attempts and other SDV within one year of infection. Veterans with SARS-COV-2 infections were matched 1:5 with non-infected comparators each month. Three periods after index were evaluated: days 1-30, days 31-365, and days 1-365. PARTICIPANTS: VHA patients infected with SARS-COV-2 between March 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021 and matched non-infected Veteran comparators. MAIN MEASURES: Suicide attempt and other SDV events for the COVID-19 and non-infected comparator groups were analyzed using incidence rates per 100,000 person years and hazard ratios from Cox regressions modeling time from matched index date to first event. Subgroups were also examined. KEY RESULTS: 198,938 veterans with SARS-COV-2 (COVID-19 group) and 992,036 comparators were included. Unadjusted one-year incidence per 100,000 for suicide attempt and other SDV was higher among the COVID-19 group: 355 vs 250 and 327 vs 235, respectively. The COVID-19 group had higher risk than comparators for suicide attempts: days 1-30 hazard ratio (HR) = 2.54 (CI:2.05, 3.15), days 31-365 HR = 1.30 (CI:1.19, 1.43) and days 1-365 HR = 1.41 (CI:1.30, 1.54), and for other SDV: days 1-30 HR = 1.94 (CI:1.51, 2.49), days 31-365 HR = 1.32 (CI:1.20, 1.45) and days 1-365 HR = 1.38 (CI:1.26, 1.51). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 patients had higher risks of both suicide attempts and other forms of SDV compared to uninfected comparators, which persisted for at least one year after infection. Results support suicide risk screening of those infected with SARS-COV-2 to identify opportunities to prevent self-harm.

Mixed Reality Surgical Navigation System; Positional Accuracy Based on Food and Drug Administration Standard.

BACKGROUND: Computer assisted surgical navigation systems are designed to improve outcomes by providing clinicians with procedural guidance information. The use of new technologies, such as mixed reality, offers the potential for more intuitive, efficient, and accurate procedural guidance. The goal of this study is to assess the positional accuracy and consistency of a clinical mixed reality system that utilizes commercially available wireless head-mounted displays (HMDs), custom software, and localization instruments. METHODS: Independent teams using the second-generation Microsoft HoloLens© hardware, Medivis SurgicalAR© software, and localization instruments, tested the accuracy of the combined system at different institutions, times, and locations. The ASTM F2554-18 consensus standard for computer-assisted surgical systems, as recognized by the U.S. FDA, was utilized to measure the performance. 288 tests were performed. RESULTS: The system demonstrated consistent results, with an average accuracy performance that was better than one millimeter (.75 ± SD .37 mm). CONCLUSION: Independently acquired positional tracking accuracies exceed conventional in-market surgical navigation tracking systems and FDA standards. Importantly, the performance was achieved at two different institutions, using an international testing standard, and with a system that included a commercially available off-the-shelf wireless head mounted display and software.

Rates of ICD-10 Code U09.9 Documentation and Clinical Characteristics of VA Patients With Post-COVID-19 Condition.

Importance: A significant proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals experience post-COVID-19 condition months after initial infection. Objective: To determine the rates, clinical setting, risk factors, and symptoms associated with the documentation of International Statistical Classification of Diseases Tenth Revision (ICD-10), code U09.9 for post-COVID-19 condition after acute infection. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study was performed within the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system. Veterans with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result between October 1, 2021, the date ICD-10 code U09.9 was introduced, and January 31, 2023 (n = 388 980), and a randomly selected subsample of patients with the U09.9 code (n = 350) whose symptom prevalence was assessed by systematic medical record review, were included in the analysis. Exposure: Positive SARS-CoV-2 test result. Main Outcomes and Measures: Rates, clinical setting, risk factors, and symptoms associated with ICD-10 code U09.9 in the medical record. Results: Among the 388 980 persons with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, the mean (SD) age was 61.4 (16.1) years; 87.3% were men. In terms of race and ethnicity, 0.8% were American Indian or Alaska Native, 1.4% were Asian, 20.7% were Black, 9.3% were Hispanic or Latino, 1.0% were Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander; and 67.8% were White. Cumulative incidence of U09.9 documentation was 4.79% (95% CI, 4.73%-4.87%) at 6 months and 5.28% (95% CI, 5.21%-5.36%) at 12 months after infection. Factors independently associated with U09.9 documentation included older age, female sex, Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, comorbidity burden, and severe acute infection manifesting by symptoms, hospitalization, or ventilation. Primary vaccination (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 0.80 [95% CI, 0.78-0.83]) and booster vaccination (AHR, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.64-0.69]) were associated with a lower likelihood of U09.9 documentation. Marked differences by geographic region and facility in U09.9 code documentation may reflect local screening and care practices. Among the 350 patients undergoing systematic medical record review, the most common symptoms documented in the medical records among patients with the U09.9 code were shortness of breath (130 [37.1%]), fatigue or exhaustion (78 [22.3%]), cough (63 [18.0%]), reduced cognitive function or brain fog (22 [6.3%]), and change in smell and/or taste (20 [5.7%]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of 388 980 veterans, documentation of ICD-10 code U09.9 had marked regional and facility-level variability. Strong risk factors for U09.9 documentation were identified, while vaccination appeared to be protective. Accurate and consistent documentation of U09.9 is needed to maximize its utility in tracking patients for clinical care and research. Future studies should examine the long-term trajectory of individuals with U09.9 documentation.

Effectiveness of Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir Against the Development of Post-COVID-19 Conditions Among U.S. Veterans : A Target Trial Emulation.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has been linked to the development of many post-COVID-19 conditions (PCCs) after acute infection. Limited information is available on the effectiveness of oral antivirals used to treat acute COVID-19 in preventing the development of PCCs. OBJECTIVE: To measure the effectiveness of outpatient treatment of COVID-19 with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in preventing PCCs. DESIGN: Retrospective target trial emulation study comparing matched cohorts receiving nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus no treatment. SETTING: Veterans Health Administration (VHA). PARTICIPANTS: Nonhospitalized veterans in VHA care who were at risk for severe COVID-19 and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during January through July 2022. INTERVENTION: Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir treatment for acute COVID-19. MEASUREMENTS: Cumulative incidence of 31 potential PCCs at 31 to 180 days after treatment or a matched index date, including cardiac, pulmonary, renal, thromboembolic, gastrointestinal, neurologic, mental health, musculoskeletal, endocrine, and general conditions and symptoms. RESULTS: Eighty-six percent of the participants were male, with a median age of 66 years, and 17.5% were unvaccinated. Baseline characteristics were well balanced between participants treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and matched untreated comparators. No differences were observed between participants treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (n = 9593) and their matched untreated comparators in the incidence of most PCCs examined individually or grouped by organ system, except for lower combined risk for venous thromboembolism and pulmonary embolism (subhazard ratio, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.44 to 0.97]; cumulative incidence difference, -0.29 percentage points [CI, -0.52 to -0.05 percentage points]). LIMITATIONS: Ascertainment of PCCs using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, codes may be inaccurate. Evaluation of many outcomes could have resulted in spurious associations with combined thromboembolic events by chance. CONCLUSION: Out of 31 potential PCCs, only combined thromboembolic events seemed to be reduced by nirmatrelvir-ritonavir. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.

An electronic health record cohort of Veterans with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Objective: To assemble and characterize an electronic health record (EHR) dataset for a large cohort of US military Veterans diagnosed with ALS (Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis). Methods: An EHR dataset for 19,662 Veterans diagnosed with ALS between January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2020 was compiled from the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) EHR database by a query for ICD9 diagnosis (335.20) or ICD10 diagnosis (G12.21) for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis. Results: The cohort is predominantly male (98.94%) and white (72.37%) with a median age at disease onset of 68 years and median survival from the date of diagnosis of 590 days. With the designation of ALS as a compensable illness in 2009, there was a subsequent increase in the number of Veterans diagnosed per year in the VHA, but no change in median survival. The cohort included a greater-than-expected proportion of individuals whose branch of service at the time of separation was the Army. Conclusions: The composition of the cohort reflects the VHA population who are at greatest risk for ALS. The greater than expected proportion of individuals whose branch of service at the time of separation was the Army suggests the possibility of a branch-specific risk factor for ALS.

Assessment of a wearable fall prevention system at a veterans health administration hospital.

Objective: In-hospital falls are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. The Veterans Health Administration (VHA) has designated fall prevention as a major focus area. The objective of this report is to assess the performance of a new sensor-enabled wearable system to prevent patient falls. Methods: An integrated sensor-enabled wearable SmartSock system was utilized to prevent falls at the acute care wards of a large VA hospital. Individual patients were only provided the SmartSocks when they were determined to be at high risk of falling. All fall count rates, with and without using the SmartSock, were evaluated and compared for individual patients. SmartSock sensor and electronic health record data were combined to assess the system's performance from February 10, 2021, through October 31, 2021. Results: There were 20.7 falls per 1000 ward days of care (WDOC) for those not using the SmartSocks compared to 9.2 falls per 1000 WDOC for patients using the SmartSocks. This represents a reduction of falls by more than half. These findings are further confirmed with a negative binomial regression model, which showed the use of the SmartSock had a statistically significant effect on the rate of falls (p = 0.03) when length of stay was held constant and demonstrated the odds of fall incident rate of 0.48 (95% CI, 0.24-0.92), that is less than half compared to when patients were not wearing the SmartSock. Conclusion: The use of a sensor-enabled wearable SmartSock fall prevention system resulted in a clinically meaningful and statistically significant decrease in falls in the acute care setting.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 Treatment With Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir or Molnupiravir Among U.S. Veterans: Target Trial Emulation Studies With One-Month and Six-Month Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Information about the effectiveness of oral antivirals in preventing short- and long-term COVID-19-related outcomes in the setting of Omicron variant transmission and COVID-19 vaccination is limited. OBJECTIVE: To measure the effectiveness of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and molnupiravir for outpatient treatment of COVID-19. DESIGN: Three retrospective target trial emulation studies comparing matched cohorts of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus no treatment, molnupiravir versus no treatment, and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus molnupiravir. SETTING: Veterans Health Administration (VHA). PARTICIPANTS: Nonhospitalized veterans in VHA care who were at risk for severe COVID-19 and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during January through July 2022. INTERVENTION: Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir or molnupiravir pharmacotherapy. MEASUREMENTS: Incidence of any hospitalization or all-cause mortality at 30 days and from 31 to 180 days. RESULTS: Eighty-seven percent of participants were male; the median age was 66 years, and 18% were unvaccinated. Compared with matched untreated control participants, those treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (n = 9607) had lower 30-day risk for hospitalization (22.07 vs. 30.32 per 1000 participants; risk difference [RD], -8.25 [95% CI, -12.27 to -4.23] per 1000 participants) and death (1.25 vs. 5.47 per 1000 participants; RD, -4.22 [CI, -5.45 to -3.00] per 1000 participants). Among persons alive at day 31, reductions were seen in 31- to 180-day incidence of death (hazard ratio, 0.66 [CI, 0.49 to 0.89]) but not hospitalization (subhazard ratio, 0.90 [CI, 0.79 to 1.02]). Molnupiravir-treated participants (n = 3504) had lower 30-day and 31- to 180-day risks for death (3.14 vs. 13.56 per 1000 participants at 30 days; RD, -10.42 [CI, -13.49 to -7.35] per 1000 participants; hazard ratio at 31 to 180 days, 0.67 [CI, 0.48 to 0.95]) but not hospitalization. A difference in 30-day or 31- to 180-day risk for hospitalization or death was not observed between matched nirmatrelvir- or molnupiravir-treated participants. LIMITATION: The date of COVID-19 symptom onset for most veterans was unknown. CONCLUSION: Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir was effective in reducing 30-day hospitalization and death. Molnupiravir was associated with a benefit for 30-day mortality but not hospitalization. Further reductions in mortality from 31 to 180 days were observed with both antivirals. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.

The Impact of Virtual Reality on the Patients and Providers Experience in Wide-Awake, Local-Only Hand Surgery.

Purpose: Virtual reality (VR) is an emerging technology with the potential to enhance patient care by reducing pain and anxiety for a variety of medical procedures. The aim of this study was to evaluate an immersive VR program as a nonpharmacologic intervention to reduce anxiety and increase satisfaction in patients undergoing wide-awake, local-only hand surgery. The secondary aim was to assess providers' experience with the program. Methods: An implementation evaluation was employed to assess the experience of 22 patients who used VR during outpatient, wide-awake hand surgery at a veterans affairs hospital. We assessed the patients' anxiety scores and vital signs before and after the procedure as well as postprocedural satisfaction measures. The providers' experience was also assessed. Results: Patients who used VR exhibited lower anxiety scores after the procedure compared with what they exhibited before the procedure and had high satisfaction levels with their VR experience. Surgeons who used the system reported that VR improved their ability to teach learners and better focus on the procedure. Conclusions: Virtual reality, as a nonpharmacologic intervention, reduced anxiety and contributed to the patients' perioperative satisfaction with wide-awake, local-only hand surgery. As a secondary finding, VR positively impacted the providers' experience by increasing their ability to concentrate on tasks during the surgery. Clinical relevance: Virtual reality represents a novel technology that can reduce anxiety and contribute to a positive experience for both patients and providers during wide-awake, local-only hand procedures.

Augmented Reality Demonstration Survey Results From a Veteran Affairs Medical Center.

Background: Augmented reality (AR) has a wide range of potential applications to enhance health care. Understanding how the introduction of a new technology may impact employees is essential for overall health care system success. Methods: Survey responses were obtained before and after a health care-focused interactive AR demonstration at a US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) medical center. Data were assessed with descriptive statistics, Wilcoxon signed rank matched pairs test, pooled t test, and analysis of variance. Results: A total of 166 individuals participated in the demonstration and survey. Statistically significant improvements were seen after the use of the new AR technology in each of the categories assessed using a 5-point Likert scale. Scores for perceptions of institutional innovativeness increased from 3.4 to 4.5 (a 22% increase; P < .001); employee excitement about the VA increased from 3.7 to 4.3 (a 12% increase; P < .001); and employee likelihood to continue working at VA increased from 4.2 to 4.5 (a 6% increase; P < .001). Subgroup analysis demonstrated statistically significant differences by employee veteran status, VA tenure, and sex. Respondents felt strongly that this type of work will positively impact health care and that the VA should continue these efforts. Conclusions: An AR demonstration significantly increased employee excitement and intention to continue employment at the VA and provided valuable insights about the most impactful uses of AR in health care.

Rates of and Factors Associated With Primary and Booster COVID-19 Vaccine Receipt by US Veterans, December 2020 to June 2022.

Importance: COVID-19 vaccination rates remain suboptimal in the US. Identifying factors associated with vaccination can highlight existing gaps and guide targeted interventions to improve vaccination access and uptake. Objective: To describe incidence and patient characteristics associated with primary, first booster, and second booster COVID-19 vaccination in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study assessed US veterans receiving care in VHA medical centers and outpatient clinics as of December 1, 2020. All VHA enrollees with an inpatient, outpatient, or telehealth encounter in VHA as well as a primary care physician appointment in the preceding 24 months were included. Exposures: Demographic characteristics, place of residence, prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, and underlying medical conditions. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cumulative incidence of primary, first booster, and second booster COVID-19 vaccination through June 2022. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify factors independently associated with COVID-19 vaccination. Results: Among 5 632 413 veterans included in the study, 5 094 392 (90.4%) were male, the median (IQR) age was 66 (51-74) years, 1 032 334 (18.3%) were Black, 448 714 (8.0%) were Hispanic, and 4 202 173 (74.6%) were White. Through June 2022, cumulative incidences were 69.0% for primary vaccination, 42.9% for first booster, and 9.3% for second booster. Cumulative incidence for primary vaccination increased with increasing age, from 46.9% (95% CI, 46.8%-47.0%) among veterans aged 18 to 49 years to 82.9% (95% CI, 82.8%-83.0%) among veterans aged 80 to 84 years. More Black veterans completed primary vaccination (71.7%; 95% CI, 71.6%-71.8%) compared with White veterans (68.9%; 95% CI, 68.9%-69.0%), and more urban-dwelling veterans completed primary vaccination (70.9%; 95% CI, 70.9%-71.0%) compared with highly rural-dwelling veterans (63.8%; 95% CI, 63.4%-64.1%). Factors independently associated with higher likelihood of both primary and booster vaccination included older age, female sex, Asian or Black race, Hispanic ethnicity, urban residence, and lack of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of US veterans, COVID-19 vaccination coverage through June 2022 was suboptimal. Primary vaccination can be improved among younger, rural-dwelling veterans. Greater uptake of booster vaccination among all veterans is needed.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 treatment with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir or molnupiravir among U.S. Veterans: target trial emulation studies with one-month and six-month outcomes.

Background: Information about the effectiveness of oral antivirals in preventing short- and long-term COVID-19-related outcomes during the Omicron surge is limited. We sought to determine the effectiveness of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and molnupiravir for the outpatient treatment of COVID-19. Methods: We conducted three retrospective target trial emulation studies comparing matched patient cohorts who received nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus no treatment, molnupiravir versus no treatment, and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus molnupiravir in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Participants were Veterans in VHA care at risk for severe COVID-19 who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the outpatient setting during January and February 2022. Primary outcomes included all-cause 30-day hospitalization or death and 31-180-day incidence of acute or long-term care admission, death, or post-COVID-19 conditions. For 30-day outcomes, we calculated unadjusted risk rates, risk differences, and risk ratios. For 31-180-day outcomes, we used unadjusted time-to-event analyses. Results: Participants were 90% male with median age 67 years and 26% unvaccinated. Compared to matched untreated controls, nirmatrelvir-ritonavir-treated participants (N=1,587) had a lower 30-day risk of hospitalization (27.10/1000 versus 41.06/1000, risk difference [RD] - 13.97, 95% CI -23.85 to -4.09) and death (3.15/1000 versus 14.86/1000, RD -11.71, 95% CI - 16.07 to -7.35). Among persons who were alive at day 31, further significant reductions in 31-180-day incidence of hospitalization (sub-hazard ratio 1.07, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.37) or death (hazard ratio 0.61, 95% CI 0.35 to 1.08) were not observed. Molnupiravir-treated participants aged ≥65 years (n=543) had a lower combined 30-day risk of hospitalization or death (55.25/1000 versus 82.35/1000, RD -27.10, 95% CI -50.63 to -3.58). A statistically significant difference in 30-day or 31-180-day risk of hospitalization or death was not observed between matched nirmatrelvir- or molnupiravir-treated participants. Incidence of most post-COVID conditions was similar across comparison groups. Conclusions: Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir was highly effective in preventing 30-day hospitalization and death. Short-term benefit from molnupiravir was observed in older groups. Significant reductions in adverse outcomes from 31-180 days were not observed with either antiviral.

Changes in postoperative opioid prescribing across three diverse healthcare systems, 2010-2020.

Objective: The opioid crisis brought scrutiny to opioid prescribing. Understanding how opioid prescribing patterns and corresponding patient outcomes changed during the epidemic is essential for future targeted policies. Many studies attempt to model trends in opioid prescriptions therefore understanding the temporal shift in opioid prescribing patterns across populations is necessary. This study characterized postoperative opioid prescribing patterns across different populations, 2010-2020. Data Source: Administrative data from Veteran Health Administration (VHA), six Medicaid state programs and an Academic Medical Center (AMC). Data extraction: Surgeries were identified using the Clinical Classifications Software. Study Design: Trends in average daily discharge Morphine Milligram Equivalent (MME), postoperative pain and subsequent opioid prescription were compared using regression and likelihood ratio test statistics. Principal Findings: The cohorts included 595,106 patients, with populations that varied considerably in demographics. Over the study period, MME decreased significantly at VHA (37.5-30.1; p = 0.002) and Medicaid (41.6-31.3; p = 0.019), and increased at AMC (36.9-41.7; p < 0.001). Persistent opioid users decreased after 2015 in VHA (p < 0.001) and Medicaid (p = 0.002) and increase at the AMC (p = 0.003), although a low rate was maintained. Average postoperative pain scores remained constant over the study period. Conclusions: VHA and Medicaid programs decreased opioid prescribing over the past decade, with differing response times and rates. In 2020, these systems achieved comparable opioid prescribing patterns and outcomes despite having very different populations. Acknowledging and incorporating these temporal distribution shifts into data learning models is essential for robust and generalizable models.

Geographic and temporal variation in racial and ethnic disparities in SARS-CoV-2 positivity between February 2020 and August 2021 in the United States.

The coronavirus pandemic has disproportionally impacted racial and ethnic minority communities in the United States. Patterns of these disparities may be changing over time as outbreaks occur in different communities. Utilizing electronic health record data from the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), we estimated odds ratios, stratified by time period and region, for testing positive among 1,313,402 individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2 between February 12, 2020 and August 16, 2021 at VA medical facilities. We adjusted for personal characteristics (sex, age, rural/urban residence, VA facility) and a wide range of clinical characteristics that have been evaluated in prior SARS-CoV-2 reports and could potentially explain racial/ethnic disparities in SARS-CoV-2. Our study found racial and ethnic disparities for testing positive were most pronounced at the beginning of the pandemic and decreased over time. A key finding was that the disparity among Hispanic individuals attenuated but remained elevated, while disparities among Asian individuals reversed by March 1, 2021. The variation in racial and ethnic disparities in SARS-CoV-2 positivity by time and region, independent of underlying health status and other demographic characteristics in a nationwide cohort, provides important insight for strategies to prevent further outbreaks.

Differences in COVID-19 Risk by Race and County-Level Social Determinants of Health among Veterans.

COVID-19 disparities by area-level social determinants of health (SDH) have been a significant public health concern and may also be impacting U.S. Veterans. This retrospective analysis was designed to inform optimal care and prevention strategies at the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and utilized COVID-19 data from the VAs EHR and geographically linked county-level data from 18 area-based socioeconomic measures. The risk of testing positive with Veterans' county-level SDHs, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, and facility characteristics, was calculated using generalized linear models. We found an exposure-response relationship whereby individual COVID-19 infection risk increased with each increasing quartile of adverse county-level SDH, such as the percentage of residents in a county without a college degree, eligible for Medicaid, and living in crowded housing.

Changes in the associations of race and rurality with SARS-CoV-2 infection, mortality, and case fatality in the United States from February 2020 to March 2021: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We examined whether key sociodemographic and clinical risk factors for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and mortality changed over time in a population-based cohort study. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In a cohort of 9,127,673 persons enrolled in the United States Veterans Affairs (VA) healthcare system, we evaluated the independent associations of sociodemographic and clinical characteristics with SARS-CoV-2 infection (n = 216,046), SARS-CoV-2-related mortality (n = 10,230), and case fatality at monthly intervals between February 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021. VA enrollees had a mean age of 61 years (SD 17.7) and were predominantly male (90.9%) and White (64.5%), with 14.6% of Black race and 6.3% of Hispanic ethnicity. Black (versus White) race was strongly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 5.10, [95% CI 4.65 to 5.59], p-value <0.001), mortality (AOR 3.85 [95% CI 3.30 to 4.50], p-value < 0.001), and case fatality (AOR 2.56, 95% CI 2.23 to 2.93, p-value < 0.001) in February to March 2020, but these associations were attenuated and not statistically significant by November 2020 for infection (AOR 1.03 [95% CI 1.00 to 1.07] p-value = 0.05) and mortality (AOR 1.08 [95% CI 0.96 to 1.20], p-value = 0.21) and were reversed for case fatality (AOR 0.86, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.95, p-value = 0.005). American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN versus White) race was associated with higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in April and May 2020; this association declined over time and reversed by March 2021 (AOR 0.66 [95% CI 0.51 to 0.85] p-value = 0.004). Hispanic (versus non-Hispanic) ethnicity was associated with higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and mortality during almost every time period, with no evidence of attenuation over time. Urban (versus rural) residence was associated with higher risk of infection (AOR 2.02, [95% CI 1.83 to 2.22], p-value < 0.001), mortality (AOR 2.48 [95% CI 2.08 to 2.96], p-value < 0.001), and case fatality (AOR 2.24, 95% CI 1.93 to 2.60, p-value < 0.001) in February to April 2020, but these associations attenuated over time and reversed by September 2020 (AOR 0.85, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.89, p-value < 0.001 for infection, AOR 0.72, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.83, p-value < 0.001 for mortality and AOR 0.81, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.93, p-value = 0.006 for case fatality). Throughout the observation period, high comorbidity burden, younger age, and obesity were consistently associated with infection, while high comorbidity burden, older age, and male sex were consistently associated with mortality. Limitations of the study include that changes over time in the associations of some risk factors may be affected by changes in the likelihood of testing for SARS-CoV-2 according to those risk factors; also, study results apply directly to VA enrollees who are predominantly male and have comprehensive healthcare and need to be confirmed in other populations. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that strongly positive associations of Black and AI/AN (versus White) race and urban (versus rural) residence with SARS-CoV-2 infection, mortality, and case fatality observed early in the pandemic were ameliorated or reversed by March 2021.